News
Spotlight Ukraine
Munich Security Index 2023
The results of running the Munich Security Index in Ukraine are evidence of Ukrainian unity, resilience, and bullishness in face of Russian aggression.
Ukrainian citizens' views on whose rules they would prefer to live by, November 2022, percent
Astonishingly, only six percent of Ukrainians feel unprepared to take on Russia’s invasion, and even during a winter marked by blackouts and shortages they feel more prepared to face the risk of energy supply disruption than any G7 public. Ukraine’s Western orientation is also unequivocal. The vast majority of Ukrainians want to live in a world shaped by European and, to a lesser extent, US rules (Figure 1.16). Russian and Chinese visions of order have virtually no purchase in Ukraine.
Ukrainians evaluating whether they should carry on fighting or surrender in different scenarios, November 2022, percent
In striking contrast to some Western policy-makers, whose concerns about further military escalation appear to hamstring more determined support, Ukrainians have not been intimidated by Russian threats. As devastating as the use of a tactical nuclear weapon against a city or on the battlefield would be, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians say they would still refuse to surrender if it occurred (Figure 1.17).
Ukrainian citizens' views on acceptable ceasefire terms, November 2022, percent
Moreover, nothing short of a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, suffices for most Ukrainians as acceptable conditions for a ceasefire (Figure 1.18). Even a Russian withdrawal from previously occupied areas would be unacceptable for the majority of Ukrainians if it does not also include Crimea. Premature peace negotiations, calls for which are particularly vocal in some Western capitals, would thus likely meet fierce resistance among the Ukrainian population.
Ukrainian citizens' views on security arrangements after the war, November 2022, percent
The transatlantic partners also need to start planning for how to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security from Russian attacks. Ukrainian citizens are deeply aware of the lasting threat Putin’s Russia poses and overwhelmingly believe that they require Western security guarantees (Figure 1.19). What these could look like is still unclear. But most Ukrainians believe that they will need permanent arms supplies from the West. A clear majority also fears that outside of NATO, Ukraine will never be secure, which is corroborated by the fact that Ukrainians place much less faith in the EU to protect them than in NATO.
Ukrainian evaluation of the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine of different countries and organizations, share saying the country or organization has "done well" minus share saying it has "done badly", November 2022, percent
These patterns are also reflected in Ukrainians’ evaluation of other countries’ responses to the war (Figure 1.20). Those polled judge all G7 countries, as well as Turkey, unequivocally positively. But there are meaningful differences among them – unsurprising given the variation in material support provided, messaging, and urgency with which countries responded to the war. The UK tops the ranking, closely followed by the US, and Canada, while Western European states trail the Anglophone countries by around 30 percentage points. Meanwhile, Ukrainians perceive China and India to have responded particularly badly, but all actors from the “Global South” score negatively in the ranking.
Figures
Download (5.39 MB) all figures of the Munich Security Index 2023