Munich Security Report 2023

On February 24, 2022, Russia not only launched a war against Ukraine. With its brutal and unprovoked invasion of a sovereign state, Moscow has also mounted an attack against the foundational principles of the post–World War II order. Since that fateful decision, the world has changed dramatically. Data from the Munich Security Index 2023, an exclusive annual index of risk perceptions that the MSC developed together with its partner Kekst CNC, shows that people around the world feel they are indeed witnessing a turning point in world politics.

To explore where the global order is actually turning toward, the 2023 edition of the Munich Security Report (MSR) zooms in on various domains where the contest for the future international order is currently playing out – human rights, the governance of global infrastructures, development, energy security, and nuclear stability. As the chapters show, the Russian war against Ukraine is just the most brazen attack by authoritarian revisionists on the liberal, rules-based international order. Revisionist actors are trying to undermine the status quo and change the international order in many different ways. At the same time, the chapters highlight that in the contest between different visions for the future international order, the divide between democracies and autocracies is not the only cleavage that matters – and powerful autocrats are not alone in their deep dissatisfaction with existing international norms and institutions.

The extraordinary resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people, which is also evident in the Munich Security Index survey result from Ukraine, has instilled a new sense of purpose into democratic countries and governance formats. But while liberal democracies have shown their willingness and ability to push back against authoritarian efforts to subvert key rules and principles, another difficult task still lies ahead: re-envisioning the liberal, rules-based international order to make it more attractive among the wider international community. Against the backdrop of multiple cleavages at play in the global order contest and legitimate resentments that many countries of the “Global South” have toward the existing order, simply defending the status quo will not do the trick. Instead, liberal democracies have to offer a positive vision for a more peaceful and prosperous world.

Editors‘ note: This revised version of the MSR includes some minor changes compared to the original document.

The report features a range of exclusive and previously unpublished data. For the MSR 2023, the MSC once more cooperated with a number of institutions, including the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Rescue Committee (IRC), the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, and Global Trade Alert.

With the Munich Security Index, the MSC and Kekst CNC together have built a data set to explore citizens’ risk perceptions in the G7 and BRICS nations. By combining five metrics – overall risk, potential damage, expected trajectory, perceived imminence, and feelings of preparedness – the index, underpinned by a survey of 12,000 people globally, provides annual insights into how major countries view risk. With the first edition of the index published in 2021, the index also enables an evaluation of how risk perceptions change over time.

The Munich Security Index 2023 is exceptional because the MSC and Kekst CNC decided not to poll in Russia and instead included Ukraine. The Russian war of aggression and its ramifications have dramatically increased risk perceptions among citizens around the world. But these traditional security threats only add to, not replace, citizens’ existing concerns about transnational risks like climate change. The Munich Security Index 2023 is thus a testament to a new age in global politics marked by an omnipresent sense of insecurity.

The Munich Security Index 2023 is part of the MSR 2023 and is also available as separate download above.

Since its first edition in 2015, the Munich Security Report (MSR) has compiled data, analyses, and maps to illustrate current security challenges. The annual flagship report is traditionally published as a discussion starter for the Munich Security Conference in February and is targeted at an expert audience as well as the interested public. Special editions of the MSR offer deeper analyses of key actors, regions, or issues.